Imagine Britain being ordered to surrender all territory south of London. Or France waking up to find Marseille and Bordeaux seized.

That is the scale of what Volodymyr Zelensky could be asked to accept – a fifth of Ukrainian land to Russia in exchange for an end to the invasion.

Vladimir Putin has said that any agreement to end the war must reflect the ‘realities on the ground,’ a reference to Ukrainian territory controlled by his army.

Russia launched the full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, and currently controls around 20% of Ukrainian territory, including the occupied Crimean peninsula, which it annexed in 2014.

It rules almost all of the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, as well as Kherson, and Russian forces have been pushing to capture more land in recent weeks.

Alongside territory – rich in deposits of rare earth metals – there are about 10 million Ukrainians living under occupation, including the millions who have been forcibly relocated to Russia.

The Ukrainian president has hinted that he is willing to swap territory that his soldiers seized inside Russia’s Kursk in August 2024, but the Kremlin has ruled this out.

Here is how that would look if the same demand was made of some of the world’s superpowers – Britain, France, Germany, US and China.

Britain

One scenario for Britain could see pretty much everything south of London surrendered to a foreign power.

This would mean the White Cliffs of Dover, Portsmouth’s historic dockyard and the Cornish coastline all cut off.

London itself would become a frontline city, blocked from the English Channel, major ports and isolated from its European allies.

The 20% territorial loss would also mean 13.4 million people would live under occupation.

France

In a scenario reminiscent to the Nazi occupation of France during World War II, both the regions of Bordeaux and Marseille would be taken over in an invasion.

This would mean that as many as 13.7 million French citizens would be abandoned in the hands of an occupier.

Both regions hold significant geopolitical importance for France, so losing them would be a major hit for the country’s economy and military strategy.

Bordeaux is home to one of the largest ports on the Atlantic coast, which would mean surrendering global trade routes with both North and South America.

Meanwhile, the Toulon naval base, which is located just east of Marseille, houses its nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, Charles de Gaulle.

Germany

More than 16.8 million Germans – a fifth of its population – would suddenly find themselves under foreign control.

Berlin would be leading a diminished nation as the city of Munich, an economic powerhouse not just for Germany but Europe as well, would be gone.

Every year, it also hosts the Munich Security Conference, one of the world’s most important forums for global security.

US

Multiple states and almost 70 million Americans would be cut off from the US in a scenario similar to what the Trump administration is pressuring Ukraine to do.

Most of the East Coast – including New York, Washington DC, Atlanta and Miami – would be under occupation.

The country’s financial and political core would be lost, leaving the rest of it struggling to function as the global superpower it once was.

Every major national security agency, CIA, FBI and NSA, would be uprooted, leaving the US exposed to further attacks from its adversaries.

China

China’s population and territorial losses would be larger than the ones of all four other countries put together.

A fifth of its population amounts to more than 283 million, while territory wise it would mean 3.7 million square miles annexed.

But China’s government, known for its firm stance on territorial sovereignty, would never accept such a demand.

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