Good news for Vladimir Putin – Donald Trump is on track to do his job for him after cutting off US military aid to Ukraine as ‘punishment’.
A White House official announced a ‘pause and review’ of US assistance to Ukraine after the disastrous Oval Office meeting between the US president and Volodymyr Zelensky.
This will hit Ukraine’s first line of defence against Russia’s ballistic missiles leaving millions of people exposed.
Ivan Stupak, a military expert and ex-SBU officer, described the US cuts as ‘sanctions’ on Ukraine’s ability to defend its civilian population.
‘I do not want to take the role of Nostradamus, but if the tension between the US and Ukraine continues, Russia will launch massive attacks using ballistic missiles such as Kinjals and Iskander on cities in Ukraine, which will result in a lot of casualties,’ he told Metro.
‘Cutting off military supply will have a great impact on defending civilians.’
Here is everything we know about the US aid cuts – and what it means for the war, now in its fourth year, as Ukraine grapples with the consequences.
How will Ukraine’s defence be impacted?
Stupak estimated that 55% of weapons used in the war are produced in Ukraine. The rest is divided between Europe (25%) and the US (20%).
While Ukrainian forces could hold the situation together on the battlefield as they fight Russian troops, the repercussions of cuts will fall on civilians.
Ukraine’s ability to protect its people and civilian infrastructure has heavily relied on sophisticated US air defence system Patriot.
Prime minister Denys Shmyhal, who was the first official to comment after Trump stunned Ukrainians by pausing the supply of aid, said there was a risk for the repair, maintenance, and general supplies for defences.
He described them as the only system capable of repelling the waves of Russian ballistic missile strikes.
Stupak stressed it is ‘more about defence rather than offence’ and said the government is currently trying to estimate the risk.
He added: ‘Top of the board of what we are losing are missiles, Patriot anti-aircraft systems.
‘They are incredibly important for Ukraine. Second place are munitions for multiple launch rocket system (MLRS), HIMARS.’
Spare parts for M1 Abrams, a third-generation American main battle tank, and equipment for F-16 fighter jets may also be impacted depending on how long the pause will last.
Will the US withhold intelligence too?
Just as vital is US intelligence assistance, which has allowed Ukraine to track Russian troop movements and select targets.
Stupak argued that European allies could not make up for a withdrawal of that asset if it proves to be part of the pause because of the number of US satellites.
‘Intelligence is not connected just to the battlefield,’ Stupak explained. ‘Yes, we learn about Russian positions, how many tanks do they have, or how many planes, etc.
‘But we also learn about deployment of Russian troops, about the launch of cruise missiles, Shahed drones or anything else.
‘Every time we hear the air raid alarm, we go on our phones and check what the threat is – that is from US intelligence.
‘Is it an incoming ballistic missile? Is it drones? Do I need to find a shelter? Nobody knows what the US will do with this type of information.’
Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.
For more stories like this, check our news page.
